Navigating the 2025 Rental Landscape: October Update

In our October Rental Market Insights webinar, Apartment List Chief Economist Chris Salviati unpacked what happens when the “busy season” fades early. National rents slipped again in September while vacancy reached a new high in our index. Units are taking longer to lease, as operators confront a market defined by ongoing sluggishness.

This is not a downturn, but a reset. The peak of rent growth now lands in March, not June or July, reshaping everything from renewal calendars to marketing budgets. As vacancies climb, renters remain deliberate rather than desperate: searching earlier, signing later, and using their leverage to demand clarity and speed. In this slower-moving market, precision and timing have become the new advantage.

The path forward is all about mastering rhythm. The multifamily operators who treat the off-season as strategy season – refining workflows, pricing, and data discipline – will emerge strongest as conditions rebalance heading into 2026.

Here’s what we’ll cover in this blog:

• Key Market Indicators: Where rents, vacancies, and leasing velocity stand post-summer.
• Shifts in Seasonality: Why demand is pulling forward, and how to realign your calendars.
• Macro Forces: How labor market cooling and mortgage trends are shaping renter behavior.
• The Operator Playbook: Tactical moves to turn a slow season into a strategic edge.

Where the Market Stands Now

As we moved through September, the numbers confirmed what many operators have felt on the ground: the summer surge has cooled, and the market has transitioned decisively into its slower rhythm as we head into fall.

Rent Growth is Cooling, Not Collapsing

• After a modest 0.4% percent decline MoM, national rent growth has now been negative for two straight months (-0.8 percent YoY).
• The national median rent stands at $1,394, 3.3% below the August 2022 peak ($1,442), yet still 22% higher than January 2021.

We’re in a period of gentle normalization, not contraction. The rapid gains of 2021–22 are being offset by a period of slower market conditions. .

Performance is Diverging by Region

The national average masks sharp regional divergence. In the Sun Belt, supply-heavy metros continue to soften:

• Austin (-6.5%)
• Denver (-5.1%)
• Phoenix (-4.4%)
• Tucson (-4.2%)
• New Orleans (-3.7%)

Meanwhile, coastal and core markets are rebounding:

• San Francisco (+4.9%)
• Chicago (+4.1%)
• Fresno (+4.1%)
• San Jose (+3.8 %)
• Providence (+3.6%)

Vacancy is Elevated & Leasing Takes Longer

• The national vacancy rate climbed to 7.1%, the highest level Apartment List has ever recorded, going back to 2017.
• The typical unit now spends 31 days on the market, the third consecutive monthly increase.

While new construction starts have begun to recede, the tail end of the supply wave continues to test absorption capacity. That combination: more choice and less urgency, is giving renters the upper hand.

Vacancy today is as much about pacing as it is about oversupply. The differentiator for operators isn’t pricing aggression but speed of execution: tight response SLAs, friction-free tours, and clear communication throughout the leasing journey.

Bottom Line: Soft Nationally, Fragmented Locally

September’s data confirmed a market in reset: rents easing, vacancies high, and leasing timelines lengthening. But the story is uneven, Sun Belt markets continue to recalibrate, while coastal metros regain footing.

How Leasing Seasonality Has Shifted

Every cycle has a rhythm, and right now, the rhythm is changing. For the third consecutive year, the market’s peak arrived early and the cooldown came sooner, compressing what used to be a steady summer arc into a brief spring spike. Rent growth that once peaked in May or June now consistently tops out in March, with declines arriving by late summer.

Key takeaway: The “busy season” isn’t what it used to be. Leasing calendars, renewal outreach, and marketing spend all need to move forward on the timeline to capture demand before it plateaus.

Peak Rent Growth Has Moved to March

In 2025, March delivered +0.6% rent growth MoM, the highest of the year, months ahead of what would have been the summer peak in a pre-pandemic cycle. By August, rents had already flipped negative, marking the third straight year of an early seasonal decline.

That acceleration at the front of the year and flattening through summer suggest that household moves are happening earlier, likely a residual effect of the pandemic-era lease shifts that pulled renewal and move-in timing forward.

Key takeaway: March is the new June. Operators who align their leasing push and renewal cadence to a Q1-Q2 peak will capture more velocity before renters go quiet.

Renter Behavior is Front-Loaded

Apartment List user data mirrors the trend:

• Nearly 30% of annual registrations now occur in Q1, up sharply from pre-2020 patterns.
• Preferred move-in dates are flattening across Q1-Q3 rather than peaking in Q3.
• Lease signings in Q1 have risen significantly, narrowing the gap with traditional summer months.

Renters are signaling earlier intent but taking longer to commit – an elongated, low-urgency funnel that rewards consistent follow-up and nurturing rather than short-term pushes.

Key takeaway: Demand is front-loaded but deliberate. Operators need to engage renters sooner and sustain them longer through automation and clear communication.

Regional Rhythms Vary, But the Pattern Holds

West Coast & Sun Belt: The most pronounced shifts: peaks in March, cooldowns by August, reflecting markets with the largest construction waves and most price volatility.

Northeast & Midwest: Still show May or June peaks, but with a flatter trajectory and less seasonal lift overall.

Across regions, the spread between “on-season” and “off-season” rent growth is narrower than before 2020, indicating a broader move toward stabilized demand. Don’t treat your leasing calendar as a constant. Calibrate by region and submarket, e.g. what’s “summer” in Phoenix is now “spring” in practice.

Peak-season planning used to be a summer ritual; today, it starts in January. For operators, this means marketing creatives, renewal offers, and pricing reviews must all move up one quarter. Teams that treat Q1 as the new Q2 will enter the off-season with occupancy momentum instead

What Macroeconomic Factors Mean for Multifamily

While the rental market’s internal rhythm is shifting, its broader environment is shaped by two countervailing forces: a softening labor market and a still-frozen for-sale market. One cools household formation; the other keeps renters from leaving. Together they create a steady, if subdued, baseline for demand heading into 2026.

Labor Momentum is Slowing

Recent downward revisions to federal employment data reveal slower job growth than previously thought. Monthly gains now sit below 2015–2019 averages, signaling that the once-overheated labor market is cooling.

That matters for multifamily because job stability fuels household formation: when confidence slips, renters double-up or stay put longer. Weaker job growth means a slower flow of new renter households – expect modest absorption through early 2026 rather than a rebound spike.

Mortgage Relief is Limited

After flirting with 7% earlier this year, mortgage rates have eased to roughly 6.1%, but that’s still well above the sub-4% environment of 2015–2019. Combined with record-high home prices, the monthly payment on a median-priced home has nearly doubled since 2020. As a result, would-be buyers remain in rentals, some by choice, most by necessity.

Falling rates grab headlines but don’t fix affordability. The ownership market remains locked, keeping demand anchored in multifamily.

Net Effect: Stable Demand, Muted Growth

The net result is a push-and-pull economy:

• Labor drag: less household creation, slower lease velocity.
• Ownership barriers: renter retention and extended tenure.

These two forces roughly offset each other, leaving the market stable but stagnant, conditions that reward operational efficiency more than expansion.

Treat 2026 as a year of gradual tightening, not rapid growth. Use the current pause to rebuild team capacity, refine pricing discipline, and strengthen renewal programs before momentum returns.

What Multifamily Operators Should Do Now

The next few months will be defined by calibration. As the market drifts into its quieter phase, the operators who pull ahead will be those who treat the lull as a testing ground, tightening processes, training teams, and fine-tuning data loops.

1. Front-Load Demand Planning

With renter activity now peaking in Q1, the operational calendar needs a quarter-turn forward. Renewal notices, marketing pushes, and concession planning should all begin in January, not April.

Tactical moves to consider:

• Audit lease expirations: smooth out Q2–Q3 concentration.
• Schedule renewal offers 60–90 days earlier than last year.
• Launch spring digital campaigns in late January to capture early registrants.

Treat Q1 as your “new summer.” The properties that prepare early will enter March with momentum instead of vacancy.

2. Win on Experience, Not Just Price

When units linger longer, experience becomes leverage. Renters are deliberate, not desperate, so every interaction, from first click to signed lease, carries weight.

Operator actions:

• Tighten lead-response SLAs (under 1 hour target).
• Simplify tour scheduling and offer virtual options.
• Empower on-site teams to resolve objections fast.

Speed and clarity convert hesitation into commitment. In a 31-day list-to-lease market, every hour counts.

3. Price with Precision

Broad-brush rent hikes won’t stick in a market this fragmented. Austin and Phoenix need occupancy defense; San Francisco and Chicago can test small uplifts. The goal is not higher prices, it’s the right price for the moment.

Tactical moves:

• Review comps and tour-to-lease ratios weekly (not monthly).
• Adjust concessions granularly by floor plan or unit type.
• Integrate real-time platform to guide decisions.

Pricing agility is the new pricing power. Win on reaction time, not just rate.

4. Use the Off-Season as a Training Ground

The data suggests the market will tighten gradually through 2026. Now is the moment to shore up operations, before volume returns.

Operator actions:

• Revisit staffing models and cross-train teams.
• Implement renter-facing tech updates (automation, lead tracking).
• Document what worked this year so playbooks are ready for the next cycle.

Every slow season is a future competitive edge. Operators who stay nimble now will scale faster when conditions tighten.

The coming months won’t reward risk, they’ll reward readiness. Operators who act early, tighten execution, and trust their data will enter 2026 not waiting for momentum but already riding it. The off-season is the advantage season.

Final Thoughts & Next Steps

This is a market finding its balance. Momentum has cooled, urgency has faded, and the cycle’s center of gravity has shifted earlier in the year. That slower pace can feel uneasy, but it’s also clarifying: supply is easing, demand is anchored, and the path forward rewards precision over bravado.

What matters now is rhythm and focus. Move your calendar forward, price to local signals, and make the renter journey frictionless. In a landscape where the summer spike has flattened into a spring crescendo, the advantage goes to teams that act early and execute cleanly. Looking ahead, expect gradual tightening rather than a sudden turn. Treat this off-season as working time: codify what’s working, level up your people and tooling, and be ready to meet demand on your terms when it returns.

Want to dive deeper into the data or discuss how to apply these insights to your leasing strategy? We’ve got you covered.

Watch the full webinar recording. Catch the full session with Apartment List Senior Economist Chris Salviati for a more detailed look at the charts, market breakdowns, and Q&A.

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