Rents converging back to long-run trend

Headline

From 2017 to 2019 the national median rent increased by an average of 2.5 percent per year; if that trend had continued from 2020 through present, the median monthly rent would sit at $1,395 as of August 2026. The actual median rent in August 2026 is $1,390, just barely below that projected level. Rents may have skyrocketed in 2021 and 2022, but the gradual cooldown of the ensuing years has now offset those increases to the extent that the national median rent has converged back to a long-run trend of slow and steady growth.

Key Takeaways

• As of August 2026, the national median rent sits at $1,390, almost exactly where it would have been if rent growth since 2020 had remained on the slow and steady trajectory it had been on pre-pandemic ($1,395).
• Since 2020, the rental market has whipplashed between skyrocketing rents and price declines, and those alternating hot and cold spells have now offset each other such that rent growth over the past six and half years as a whole averages out to an annual pace of 2.5 percent per year.
• This national finding masks significant regional variation. In the Buffalo, NY metro, the median rent is 37% higher than it would have been had rents increased at a typical rate, whereas in the Austin, TX metro, rents are 15% below that level.

National median rent converging to long-run trend as hot and cold spells offset

From 2017 to 2019, the national median rent increased by an average of 2.5 percent per year. That was generally inline with overall inflation (2.1 percent average annual increase from 2017 to 2019) and wage growth (3.1 percent average increase), indicating that during these years, rents increases nationally were roughly pacing with the overall cost of living. That level of gradual consistent rent growth is indicative of a well-stabilized market. That changed quickly in 2020, when the U.S. rental market was sent on a rollercoaster that continues to this day, whiplashing between skyrocketing increases and falling rents. But we’ve now reached the point that those alternating hot and cold spells have essentially cancelled each other out. The national median rent is almost exactly where it would have been if rent growth since 2020 had remained on the slow and steady pre-pandemic trajectory.

In the chart above, the solid line plots the actual national median rent from January 2017 to August 2026. The dashed line presents a counterfactual – how would the national median rent have evolved if it had continued to grow by a consistent 2.5 percent per year, the average pace observed from 2017 to 2019.

In 2020, the uncertainty of the early pandemic stalled moving activity, leading the national median rent to dip below trend by 4 percent, or $50 per month. This was followed by a housing frenzy in 2021 and 2022 that sent prices skyrocketing. By August 2022, the median rent was above trend by 14 percent, or $180 per month. But as that demand boom slowed, a historic wave of apartment construction began to reach completion, leading to a temporary oversupply of rental inventory in many markets. With properties competing for renters to fill units, many began to cut prices, and since 2023, year-over-year rent growth has consistently been negative. This prolonged cool spell has now offset the red-hot market that preceded to the extent that rent prices nationally have converged back to that long-run trend. As of August 2026, the national median rent of $1,390 actually sits just below where it would have been in the steady 2.5 percent growth scenario ($1,395).

This striking finding reveals that while no single year since 2020 has felt normal for the rental market, the ups and downs have averaged out to something that is, in fact, quite normal. Of course, rental markets are highly localized, and the national median masks significant variation. The interactive dropdown in the chart above allows you to explore this same comparison for cities, metros, and states across the U.S. For individual markets we make two comparisons:

• Baseline national growth – how a market’s median rent would have evolved if it had grown at the average pace observed nationally from 2017 to 2019 (2.5 percent per year for every market; the same assumption used for our national counterfactual)
• Market-specific trend – how a market’s median rent would have evolved if it had grown at the average pace observed in that market from 2017 to 2019 (varies for each market)

We delve further into these localized findings below.

In some markets, rents have far outpaced trend, while others are below trend

The national median rent may be converging cleanly with its long run trend, but that national index is an aggregate of varied local trends, with roughly half of markets experiencing above-trend rent growth and the other half lagging below-trend.

Among the 50 largest metros in the U.S., Buffalo, NY is the biggest outlier. The median rent in the Buffalo metro is up by 66 percent since early-2020, surging from $760 per month to $1,259. That’s 37 percent higher than where it would be if Buffalo rents had grown at the pre-pandemic national average annual growth rate of 2.5 percent. Buffalo’s staggering rent growth is even more striking when you consider that prior to 2020, its rents were basically flat, increasing by an average of just 0.6 percent year from 2017 to 2019. Buffalo’s median rent today is 51 percent greater than it would have been had the market remained on its own pre-pandemic trajectory.

At the other end of the spectrum lies Austin, TX, a market that saw rapid price growth in 2021 and 2022, but has since become the poster child for the soft market conditions of recent years. Austin rents have fallen sharply from their 2022 peak, as the metro built more new multifamily housing per-capita than any other market. That has brought Austin’s median rent ($1,300) to a level that is 15 percent lower than it would have been if rent growth had continued at the average 2017 to 2019 pace.

These same gaps can also be explored in the map below, which can more clearly illuminate regional trends:

Beyond Buffalo, many other markets in the Northeast and Midwest have also seen rent growth well outpacing the national pre-pandemic trend. In particular, a number of small to mid-sized markets pop out, including Providence, RI; Hartford, CT; Toledo, OH; and Lexington, KY. Meanwhile, many markets throughout the South and West Coast are trailing the pre-pandemic national trend. These metros include San Antonio, Houston, Denver, Phoenix, and – perhaps surprisingly given its recent rent boom – San Francisco (though at the city-level, San Francisco-proper is now ahead of the pre-pandemic trend).

Toggling the comparison between the national trend and the market-specific trend also illuminates interesting trends in how the trajectories of different markets have been altered since 2020. For example, the median rent in the Phoenix metro is currently 3 percent below where it would have been if prices had grown at the national pre-pandemic pace. But Phoenix prior to 2020, Phoenix had been one of the nation’s hottest markets, with prices increasing by an average of nearly 7 percent per year from 2017 to 2019; the median rent today is 25 percent lower than it would have been if that pace of rapid growth had continued.

Where do things go from here?

Rents nationally are still falling, with our national rent index down 0.8 percent year-over-year as of August 2026. But the magnitude of that year-over-year decline bottomed out a few months ago, and it’s now looking like a return to positive rent growth could be on the horizon. As the multifamily construction boom reaches its tail end, occupancy has begun to tighten, meaning that property owners are gradually regaining pricing leverage. It seems possible that 2027 may be the first year since 2019 that we see “normal” rent growth in the low-single digits. Now that the national median rent has converged back to its long-run trend, it may be starting to settle back into a phase of slow and steady growth.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the U.S. median rent in August 2026?

The U.S. national median rent was $1,390 per month in August 2026, according to the Apartment List Rent Index.

Were U.S. rents above or below their pre-pandemic growth trend in August 2026?

As of August 2026, the U.S. median monthly rent was $5 below where it would have been if rent growth from 2020 onward had continued at its pre-pandemic trend of 2.5 percent annual growth. Under that counterfactual – which is based on the national average rent growth from 2017 through 2019 – the projected national median rent would be $1,395 in August 2026, compared to the observed actual of $1,390.

Why did national median rent return to its pre-pandemic growth trend?

The national median rent spiked far above the pre-pandemic trend counterfactual during the 2021 to 2022 housing boom, but it then declined as demand slowed and apartment supply increased. By August 2026, the later decline had offset the earlier surge to that extent that the median rent converged back to where it would have been if growth had remained on its slow and steady pre-pandemic trend.

Which large U.S. metro was furthest above the pre-pandemic growth trend?

Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, Buffalo, NY, had the largest positive gap above the pre-pandemic trend counterfactual, as of August 2026. Its median rent was $1,259, which was 37 percent above where it would have been if rents had grown at the national pre-pandemic trend (2.5 percent annual growth), and 51 percent above where it would have been if rents had grown at Buffalo’s own pre-pandemic trend (0.6 percent annual growth).

Which large U.S. metro was furthest below the pre-pandemic growth trend?

Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, Austin, TX, had the largest negative gap below the pre-pandemic trend counterfactual, as of August 2026. Its median rent was $1,300, which was 15 percent above where it would have been if rents had grown at the national pre-pandemic trend (2.5 percent annual growth), and 16 percent above where it would have been if rents had grown at Austin’s own pre-pandemic trend (0.6 percent annual growth).

Will rents continue to grow at the pre-pandemic rate now that the trends have converged?

As of August 2026, rent prices nationally are still falling, with a year-over-year decline of -0.8 percent. But as multifamily construction slows and occupancy tightens, rent growth is expected to accelerate in 2027. A return to positive rent growth in the low single-digits is a likely scenario according to the Apartment List Economics team, but is not guaranteed.